Yet another plea by leading scientific institutions has been issued to politicians in Britain to reverse their policies that are failing to lead to action to mitigate human-induced climate disruption. This site from the Guardian newspaper contains a report on this and other scientific pleas to politicians in the run-up to the November 2015 COP 21 meeting in Paris that many see as a ‘last chance’ for international cooperation to slow down global warming.
This TED Talk by climate researcher Alice Bows-Larkin suggests that the Earth is on a 4 degree celsius trajectory of average temperature increase rather than the 2 degree limit targeted by the 1999 Copenhagen Accord. Nothing less than an immediate 10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions could limit global average warming to 2 degrees. She describes such a policy as having still “a small fighting chance” of being achieved. Another Guardian article reported further scientific opinion prior to the COP21 Paris gathering that:
“The climate change problem is one that can be solved. We have the technologies, the resources – we just need to make the commitment.”
BUT: “the world will have to cut emissions to 36bn billion tonnes of carbon to have a 50-50 chance of keeping temperatures below 2C, scientists have calculated… the world’s carbon emissions, currently around 50bn tonnes a year, will still rise over the next 15 years, even if all the national pledges [at COP21 in Paris Dec 2015] made to the UN are implemented. The institute’s figures suggest they will reach 55bn to 60bn by 2030.”
This article relates the World Meteorological Organisation’s conclusions on CO2 build up in November 2015 that is taking the planet into ‘uncharted waters’.
This e-book by Alan Longhurst presents a much more sceptical view about “Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science”. He casts doubt on the methodology, particularly the simulation modelling, used as a basis for successive IPCC reports and suggests that a ‘scientific consensus’ about global warming has overtaken the culture of scientists who now have a vested career interest in making what is uncertain appear to be certain.
Here is a review by Yale Climate Connections of key scientific research published in 2015. Links to papers are provided.
400 ppm of CO2 is now permanent in Sept 2016 according to this report.