New research vindicates prediction of global collapse

The Club of Rome report Limits to Growth’s MIT-based computer model in 1972 predicted that with ‘business as usual’ the global system would collapse within the next century. The Guardian newspaper now reports new research at the University of Melbourne, Australia showing that this dismal projection is justified by trends in the key variables over the last 40 years. Spaceship Earth is on course for overshooting its limits due to the obsessive drive  for growth among the states and ruling elites that constitute its passengers. Read the Guardian report here .

2 thoughts on “New research vindicates prediction of global collapse”

  1. From David James:

    I think part of the problem with the original publicity around LTG was that its headline – collapse of industrial civilisation – concerned the future, not the immediate present. So, when capitalism appeared to prosper during the post-oil shock long boom (1982-2007) it was easy to dismiss those projections.

    As this brief report indicates, the critical time appears to be 2015-30 – now, in other words. I suspect that’s still a bit pessimistic because the global economic system, notwithstanding the continuing effects of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) 2007 onwards, is rather more resilient than its detractors imagine. Capitalism is clearly the most ruthlessly effective system the world has ever seen, which of course is why it IS the problem. Chris Martenson thought the crisis would hit in the 2010s, but that now looks unlikely (I was always wary of his certainty). For example, the inflationary bubble has ended and oil and food prices are actually falling. There’s a big difference between short-term events – e.g. the GFC, wars – and longer-term trends. However, there must come a time when those trends converge.


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